This write up is in response to
the comment made by Tony Pua on his blog entitled Purchase
of 6 Naval Vessels up from RM6 billion to RM9 billion. We live in an
increasingly sophisticated world that makes it difficult to make simple
comments on issues. The problem is, there are too many people on both sides of
the border who are taking advantage of circumstances and the situation. It is
important that we understand just as there are two side of every coin; there
are also two sides to every story. I hope to offer you a view of the other
side, which will be examined through the lens of geo-political strategic
climate (Part I) and the mechanics of Naval Architecture (Part II). It is all
together proper and fitting I do this in order to provide a map for the people
with no insight into the labyrinth of Naval Warfare.
In primis, the question that
should be lurking in our mind should not be that of the cost but Why
is it necessary for Malaysia to build the ships?
There have been many predictions
by experts that the next power plays will be in the Indian Ocean. This
prediction is based on many facts gathered by studying the development of
Indian and China naval build up. As we are very well aware, the Indian Ocean is
the third largest body of water and encompasses the entire arc of Islam from
the Sahara Desert to the Indonesian archipelago. The Indian Ocean constitutes a
network of dynamic trade as well as a network of global terrorism, piracy and
drug smuggling. Hundred millions of Muslims live along the Indian Ocean
including Malaysia.
The Indian Ocean is dominated by
the immense bays, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal (the most turbulence
part in the flight path to London), near the top rest two most unstable
countries in the world: Pakistan and Myanmar. The collapsed of the present
regime in these two countries would threaten economies nearby and require a
massive seaborne humanitarian intervention. Looking at this scenario, China and
India has been compelled to redirect their gazes from land to the seas. The
very fact that they are focusing on their sea power indicates how much more
self confident they feel on land. And so a map of Indian Ocean exposes the
contours of power politics in the 21st century.
Throughout history, sea routes
have mattered more than land routes, because they carry more goods
economically. The adage "Whoever is lord of Malacca has his hand on the
throat of Venice" remains relevant to date, as 90% of global commerce and
about 60% of all oil travel by sea. Moreover, 70% of the total traffic of
petroleum products passes through the Indian Ocean. As these goods travel that
route, they pass through the world's principal oil shipping lane, including the
Gulf of Aden and Oman, as well as some of world commerce's main chokepoints:
Bab el Mandeb and the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca. 40% of world trade passes
through the Strait of Malacca. Already the world's preeminent energy and trade
interstate seaway, the Indian Ocean will matter more in the future as global
energy needs are expected to rise by 45% between 2006-2030. China is expected
to import 7.3 million barrels of crude per day and more than 85% of the oil and
oil products bound for China cross the Indian Ocean and pass through the Strait
of Malacca.
These facts lead to India
enlarging its navy. Currently India boast its navy with 155 warships,
the Indian navy is already one of the world's largest, and it expects
to add 3 nuclear powered submarines and three aircraft carriers to its arsenal
by 2015. This build-up is alarming to China as it is also concerned about
protecting its interest through the region. The Chinese government hopes to
eventually bypass Strait of Malacca by transporting oil and other energy
products via roads and pipelines from ports on the Indian Ocean into the heart
of China. One reason Beijing wants desperately to integrate Taiwan into its
dominion is so that it can redirect its naval energies away from the Taiwan
Strait and towards the Indian Ocean. The Chinese government has already adopted
a "string of pearls" strategy for the Indian Ocean. It is building a
large naval base and listening post in Gwadar, Pakistan (China-Pakistan are in
good relationship whereby India has strong ties with Iran) from which it may
already be monitoring ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing also
operates surveillance facilities on islands deep in the Bay of Bengal. Besides
this, the Chinese government is also envisioning a canal across the Isthmus of
Kra in Thailand, to link Indian Ocean to China's Pacific Coast. This project on
the scale of the Panama Canal and one that could further tip Asia's balance of
power in China's favor by giving China's burgeoning navy and
commercial maritime fleet an easy access to vast economic continuum stretching
all the way from East Africa to Japan and the Korean Peninsula.
All of these activities are
unnerving the Indian Government and it is safe to say that India is perhaps
China's most realistic strategic adversary as Beijing already considers New
Delhi to be a major sea power. As the competition between India and China
suggests, the Indian Ocean is where global struggles will play out in the 21st
century.
All this has great implications
on the Malaysian naval posture. The government of Malaysia is interested in a
pipeline network that would link up ports in the Bay of Bengal with those in
the South China Sea. To be sure, as sea power grows in importance, the crowded
hub of around Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia will form the maritime heart of
Asia: in the coming decades, it will be as strategically significant as the
Fulda Gap, a possible invasion route for Soviet tanks into West Germany during
the cold war. Navies exist to protect economic interests and the system, in
which these interests operate, and by building vessels our Defense Ministry is
looking in the right direction and the ministry is pursuing this matter
urgently. It has to do so as the country's economic interests expand
dramatically, so must Malaysia Military particularly the navy, to guard
these interest.
The principle behind the focus of
building fleet is attributed to the fact that ship cannot be in two places at once,
the fewer the vessels, and the riskier every decision to deploy them. There
comes a point at which insufficient quantity hurts quality. In the background
of this strategic analysis, the Royal Malaysian Navy under the guidance of
Defense Ministry is wisely focusing their buying on the real security and
economic interest of the country. The more they become an object of scrutiny
the longer the delay and this delay can be toxic in its effect. To question the
cost of the vessel is the right of every Malaysian however it holds in store
more threats than promises to the country.
In Part II, I will elucidate the
challenges faced by any country when it comes to building naval vessel. This
much I can say now, at least we did not make the costly mistakes the American
did when they were building their vessel in 2008.
To conclude Part I of my
response, I would like to quote the American military theorist in 1890 when he
published The Influence of Sea Power
Upon History, 1600-1783, he argued that the power to protect merchant
fleets had been the determining factor in world history. Malaysia is adapting to
his theory as both Chinese and Indian Naval strategist read him avidly
nowadays! We are sailing in the right direction, and for those who have never
rowed a boat should not try to steer our ship in a different direction!
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